Nicholas Schumacher
WASHINGTON — A recent national poll conducted by Bendixen & Amandi shows President Joe Biden still in contention against former President Donald Trump but at heightened risk of losing the upcoming election. The poll, commissioned after Biden’s challenging debate performance and shared exclusively with POLITICO, places Biden slightly behind Trump, with 42 percent to Trump’s 43 percent.
Among the 86 percent of likely voters who watched the debate, only 29 percent believed Biden has the mental capacity and physical stamina to serve another four-year term, while 61 percent disagreed. Furthermore, only 33 percent supported Biden continuing as the Democratic nominee, compared to 52 percent who felt he should step aside. Notably, just half of Democratic respondents expressed confidence in Biden’s fitness for another term.
The poll also assessed other leading Democrats who might run if Biden steps down, though these candidates also trailed Trump. California Governor Gavin Newsom polled at 37 percent to Trump’s 40 percent, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer came in at 36 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.
This survey, conducted between July 2 and July 6 among 1,000 likely voters, has a margin of error of 3.1 percent. The findings come amid increasing pressure from Democratic officials, donors, and activists for Biden to reconsider his candidacy following his lackluster debate performance.
Anthony Williams, special projects director at Bendixen & Amandi, noted that voters are seeking experienced leadership. “There’s a certain sophistication at play in the way voters are reacting. They are struggling with the same question the party is struggling with: Do we go with experience, or do we go with new?” Williams said. He emphasized the small but crucial differences in voter preferences that could sway the election.
The poll also explored a potential Democratic ticket with Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential nominee and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, which fared better against Trump, leading by two percentage points (42 percent to 40 percent). However, a Harris-Whitmer ticket would lag behind Trump by two percentage points (39 percent to 41 percent).
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite being younger than both Trump and Biden and publicly ruling out another presidential run, continues to support Biden. Meanwhile, other potential candidates like Newsom and Whitmer are actively campaigning and fundraising for Biden.
President Biden has dismissed calls to step aside, attributing his debate performance to a bad cold and highlighting his busy travel schedule. The poll included a provocative question about voters’ willingness to support Biden if he were cognitively diminished due to age but could prevent a Trump victory. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would not vote for Biden under such circumstances, while 44 percent would, including 75 percent of Democrats. Biden’s strongest support came from Black voters, with 55 percent willing to back him even if he experienced age-related impairment.
This poll underscores the challenges Biden faces within his party and the broader electorate as he navigates his re-election campaign.
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